Super Bowl 2018 key matchups: Patriots defense can't let Eagles control the ball

The Eagles'pass-rush vs. Tom Brady may be the single biggest matchup of Super Bowl LII on Sunday. Making Brady uncomfortable is the better way to beat the Patriots, reducing their offense in the process. Everyone understands that, and the Eagles must make every effort to make certain they do that.

Nevertheless the Eagles'offense will also play a role within their upset attempt, while the Patriots'defense will play a role in New England's attempt to repeat as champion.

The Patriots lost just 3 times during the normal season. They possessed the ball for an average of 28:15 in those three games against the Chiefs, Panthers, and Dolphins, in comparison to an average of 31:10 within their 13 wins. They dominated the time of possession battle against the Titans in the divisional round and won the game rather handily. After the Pats scored 21 unanswered points in the next quarter, the Titans had to maneuver from a ball-control offense and they never stood a chance. 

 

 For the Eagles, in the same way important as bothering Brady when New England has the football will undoubtedly be controlling the clock and keeping him off the field. The Eagles have the kind of diverse running game and powerful offensive line that may make them control the line of scrimmage and keep the ball far from New England's offense. They like to mix in three different running backs depending on down, distance, field location, and time on the clock, and all of them plays an alternative role. Jay Ajayi has bought out the lead in the backfield and he's the team's best all-around back, but LeGarrette Blount serves his purpose in short yardage and goal line situations, while Corey Clement provides flexibility on screen plays, motioning out wide, and taking advantage of scheme-specific matchups. The right side of Philly's line, in particular, excels at run-blocking, and the Eagles love to have their backs working behind Lane Johnson and Brandon Brooks with a head of steam. (If they are able to get center Jason Kelce pulling around to lead the way, that's even better.)

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Given the Patriots'weak run defense (31st in yards per carry allowed; and 30th in run defense DVOA and 31st in opponent's Adjust Line Yards, per Football Outsiders), one would think the Eagles will have the ability to find success on the ground and thus maintain at the least some control of the clock. But we saw in the AFC title game that merely winning possession isn't enough. The Jaguars held the ball for 35:08 to the Patriots'24:52 a couple of weeks ago, nevertheless they still came away with a loss.

Section of the reason for that's that the Jaguars, after staking themselves to a 14-3 lead, started playing tight. Facing 4th-and-4 from the Patriots'36-yard line in the 3rd quarter, the Jags elected to kick a 54-yard field goal. Those three points extended their lead from 14-10 to 17-10, and another third-quarter field goal pushed it to 20-10. Still holding that 10-point lead early in the fourth quarter, the Jags had a 4th-and-1 from their very own 42-yard line. They punted. The Pats drove down the field for the first of two Brady-to-Danny Amendola touchdowns on the ensuing drive. Why spend the No. 4 overall pick on Leonard Fournette if you're going to have conservative in the AFC title game against the best quarterback in the history of the NFL? That's the time to trust the foundation of your offense to have you one yard and run some additional time off the clock.

If the Eagles are confronted with similar situations on Sunday, Doug Pederson would excel to acknowledge his team's underdog status and try to tip the odds in his favor by being ultra-aggressive. Luckily for the Eagles, being aggressive is natural for Pederson. In accordance with Football Outsiders'Aggressiveness Index, Pederson was the 3rd most aggressive coach in the NFL through the 2017 regular season, behind only the Dolphins'Adam Gase and the Raiders'Jack Del Rio. (Note: "The Aggressiveness Index excludes obvious catch-up situations: third quarter, trailing by 15 or even more points; fourth quarter, trailing by nine or even more points; and within the last few five minutes of the overall game, trailing by any amount.") The Eagles went for it when confronted with a 4th-and-1 on 14 of the 23 opportunities. That 60.9 percent go-for-it rate was second behind only the Saints, who faced just eight 4th-and-1 opportunities all year and went for it six times. The Eagles also went for it two out of four times on 4th-and-2, and five out of 11 instances when confronted with 4th-and-1 or 4th-and-2 between their opponent's 31 and 37-yard line. Their 4th-and-2 go-for-it rate was tied for the best in the league, while their 31-to-37-yard line rate was eighth in the NFL. These were a really, very aggressive team all year long. They should have no issue continuing to be just that in the Super Bowl.

 That aggressiveness should extend beyond just situational football to their play-calling. The Eagles love to utilize run-pass options (RPOs) to leverage a defense's aggressiveness and speed against them. Doing so allows the quarterback to learn an individual defender and come to a decision whether to hand the ball off or pull it back and throw a quick-strike pass based on what that defender reacts after the snap. Carson Wentz executed these plays wonderfully all season ahead of his injury. Nick Foles isn't quite the running threat Wentz is, but he's experience with RPO plays from his time having fun with Chip Kelly and he's been fairly trustworthy when coming up with simple read decisions that way. (He's far more trustworthy when coming up with run-pass decisions than "should I throw into this tight window" decisions, for example.) The fact that the Eagles have several big-body receiving threats which can be comfortable on the perimeter or the interior helps, because Foles can fire the ball within their body and trust them to shield closing defenders far from the football.

Zach Ertz is particularly tough to cover on RPO plays because he's extremely fleet of foot for his size and he's excellent at selling his run-block before slipping into the center of the field for a pop pass. Alshon Jeffery is the exact same way. The Patriots generally did well defending tight ends this year, but few tight ends as an nimble and athletic as Ertz. In addition they struggled to contain big-bodied receivers like Jeffery on occasion. Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess combined for 11 catches, 174 yards and two scores contrary to the Patriots early in the season. Julio Jones had nine for 99 and a touchdown in the Falcons'loss to the Pats.

Getting linebackers and safeties to bite on run fakes before firing easy pop passes to big targets is a good way to help keep the defense off balance, not only opening wider throwing lanes for Foles, but keeping the defensive front on its heels and allowing backs to make their solution to the second level. That can help the Eagles accomplish their primary offensive goal of controlling the clock and minimizing the amount of time Brady and the offense spend on the field. If the Eagles can manage to complete all that, it will greatly increase their chances of pulling off yet another upset.